NRF Forecasts $1T Holiday Sales as Thanksgiving Weekend Could Break Record

Consumers and retailers are gearing up for one of the biggest holiday shopping seasons in US history. According to new data from the National Retail Federation (NRF), a record 186.9 million Americans are planning to shop between Thanksgiving Day and Cyber Monday, surpassing last year’s all-time high. And for the first time ever, holiday spending for November and December is expected to exceed $1 trillion, with sales forecast to grow 3.7% to 4.2% over 2024.

“The holidays are an important part of many consumers’ budgets, and that trend is especially true this season,” said Katherine Cullen, NRF’s Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights. “Retailers are prepared to meet the needs of consumers with great value and convenience.”

This year, Black Friday continues to reign supreme, with 130.4 million shoppers — about 70% of holiday weekend participants — planning to shop that day. Cyber Monday follows as the second-most-popular event, attracting 73.9 million. Even Small Business Saturday is expected to shine, with 80% of Saturday shoppers saying they want to support local businesses.

Phil Rist, Executive Vice President of Strategy at Prosper Insights & Analytics, noted that shoppers are motivated by a combination of value and tradition. “Of those planning to take advantage of sales, over half say it’s because the deals are too good to pass up,” he said. “Others point to the tradition or simply say they like to start their holiday shopping during the long weekend.”

NRF’s broader 2025 holiday forecast paints an equally robust picture. Total holiday spending is projected to reach $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion, driven by solid wage growth, historically low unemployment levels and strong consumer balance sheets.

Consumers plan to spend an average of $890 on gifts and seasonal items, and gift cards remain one of the most popular choices, with total gift-card spending expected to top $29 billion.

Despite pockets of economic uncertainty, NRF analysts emphasize that consumer spending remains the strongest pillar of the U.S. economy. “This is an above-trend forecast,” NRF economists noted, “reflecting a consumer who continues to prioritize holiday spending for their loved ones.”

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